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Baderan Tehran vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
1 – 1
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
3/16/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 28Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baderan Tehran65%
×Draw21%
Shahrdari Tabriz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.89
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.72

Baderan Tehran creates 163% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
86%
Baderan Tehran or Shahrdari Tabriz
79%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
35%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
39%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
85%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
56%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
29%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
51%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
16%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
83%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
65%
level
21%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
14%

Baderan Tehran at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 1–1 Shahrdari Tabriz

Baderan Tehran and Shahrdari Tabriz drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Naft Tehransar (Tehran).