Shahrdari Tabriz 1–2 Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Shahrdari Tabriz

FT

1 – 2

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

10/16/2018

Azadegan League · Round 8Shahrdari Complex (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz37%

×Draw28%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari TabrizExpected goals in this matchArvand Khorramshahr FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.19

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

0.72

creates per match

0.73

1.56

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.72

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

0.73

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.56

Arvand Khorramshahr FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw

65%

Shahrdari Tabriz or Arvand Khorramshahr FC

72%

Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC

63%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

16%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

70%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

33%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

12%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals

68%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals

32%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

51%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

37%

level

28%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more

35%

Shahrdari Tabriz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shahrdari Tabriz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff