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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
2/25/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC59%
×Draw26%
Shahrdari Tabriz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.53
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.63

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 143% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
85%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Shahrdari Tabriz
74%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
41%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
31%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
78%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
45%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
20%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
47%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
13%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
80%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
59%
level
26%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
15%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Shahrdari Tabriz

Arvand Khorramshahr FC and Shahrdari Tabriz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on February 25, 2019.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).