Shahrdari Tabriz 1–1 Aluminium Arak: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Tabriz

FT

1 – 1

Aluminium Arak

10/30/2019

Azadegan League · Round 10Shahrdari Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Shahrdari Tabriz24%

×Draw32%

Aluminium Arak44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari TabrizExpected goals in this matchAluminium Arak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.10

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.74

Aluminium Arak

1.10

Aluminium Arak creates 49% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 31 away

0.72

creates per match

0.65

1.56

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.72

Aluminium Arak

0.65

allows per match

Shahrdari Tabriz

1.56

Aluminium Arak

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Tabriz ↓

Aluminium Arak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Tabriz or draw

56%

Shahrdari Tabriz or Aluminium Arak

68%

Draw or Aluminium Arak

76%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

7%

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

52%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

17%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

4%

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

67%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

30%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

36%

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Tabriz at home — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.65, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.72 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

Aluminium Arak attack 0.65 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

24%

level

32%

Aluminium Arak scores more

44%

Aluminium Arak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff