Aluminium Arak 1–0 Shahrdari Tabriz: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

1 – 0

Shahrdari Tabriz

8/12/2018

Azadegan League · Round 1Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aluminium Arak71%

×Draw19%

Shahrdari Tabriz10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Tabriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.56

Aluminium Arak

1.98

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.56

Aluminium Arak creates 254% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.47

creates per match

0.56

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

1.47

Shahrdari Tabriz

0.56

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.56

Shahrdari Tabriz

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

90%

Aluminium Arak or Shahrdari Tabriz

81%

Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz

29%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

45%

Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

86%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

59%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

31%

Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals

43%

Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals

11%

Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

88%

Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.56 · 32 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.47 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

71%

level

19%

Shahrdari Tabriz scores more

10%

Aluminium Arak at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff