Shahrdari Mahshahr 1–0 Navad Urmia: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Mahshahr

FT

1 – 0

Navad Urmia

3/3/2019

Azadegan League · Round 26Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr38%

×Draw36%

Navad Urmia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari MahshahrExpected goals in this matchNavad Urmia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

0.66

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.88

Navad Urmia

0.66

Shahrdari Mahshahr creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

0.67

creates per match

0.38

0.93

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.67

Navad Urmia

0.38

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.93

Navad Urmia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Navad Urmia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw

74%

Shahrdari Mahshahr or Navad Urmia

64%

Draw or Navad Urmia

62%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+

14%

Navad Urmia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals

59%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals

22%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals

6%

Navad Urmia 1+ goals

48%

Navad Urmia 2+ goals

14%

Navad Urmia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)

60%

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more

38%

level

36%

Navad Urmia scores more

26%

Shahrdari Mahshahr at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shahrdari Mahshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff