Navad Urmia 1–1 Shahrdari Mahshahr: Result & Stats

Navad Urmia

FT

1 – 1

Shahrdari Mahshahr

10/22/2018

Azadegan League · Round 9Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navad Urmia42%

×Draw32%

Shahrdari Mahshahr25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Navad UrmiaExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Mahshahr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.74

Navad Urmia

1.05

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.74

Navad Urmia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

0.77

creates per match

0.60

0.88

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Navad Urmia

0.77

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.60

allows per match

Navad Urmia

0.88

Shahrdari Mahshahr

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw

75%

Navad Urmia or Shahrdari Mahshahr

68%

Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr

58%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+

17%

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals

65%

Navad Urmia 2+ goals

28%

Navad Urmia 3+ goals

9%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals

52%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals

17%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)

62%

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.88 · 64 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.77 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.05

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Navad Urmia scores more

42%

level

32%

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more

25%

Navad Urmia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff