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Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
2 – 1
Malavan
Malavan
10/16/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr34%
×Draw34%
Malavan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.88
Malavan
0.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
68%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Malavan
66%
Draw or Malavan
66%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
12%
Malavan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
59%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
22%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
6%
Malavan 1+ goals
57%
Malavan 2+ goals
21%
Malavan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
52%
Malavan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Malavan attack 0.76 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
34%
level
34%
Malavan scores more
32%

Shahrdari Mahshahr at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Shahrdari Mahshahr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Malavan

Shahrdari Mahshahr beat Malavan 2-1 in Azadegan League on October 16, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).