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Malavan vs Shahrdari Mahshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Malavan
Malavan
FT
1 – 0
Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
2/25/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 25Takhti Stadium (Ebtedaye khiabane) (Bandar-e-Anzalī)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Malavan53%
×Draw30%
Shahrdari Mahshahr18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malavan
1.27
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.61

Malavan creates 108% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Malavan
1.21
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.60

allows per match

Malavan
0.62
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.33

finishing

Malavan+0.00on par
Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malavan ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malavan or draw
82%
Malavan or Shahrdari Mahshahr
70%
Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr
47%

Winning margin

Malavan wins by 2+
25%
Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Malavan 1+ goals
72%
Malavan 2+ goals
36%
Malavan 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
46%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
13%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Malavan (draw refunded)
75%
Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malavan at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.62 · 66 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malavan attack 1.21 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Malavan defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Malavan scores more
53%
level
30%
Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
18%

Malavan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Malavan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malavan 1 – 0 Shahrdari Mahshahr

Malavan beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 1-0 in Azadegan League on February 25, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium (Ebtedaye khiabane) (Bandar-e-Anzalī).