Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Gol Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
1 – 3
Gol Gohar
Gol Gohar
12/9/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr25%
×Draw30%
Gol Gohar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.83
Gol Gohar
1.22

Gol Gohar creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Gol Gohar
1.50

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Gol Gohar
1.00

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Gol Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
55%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Gol Gohar
70%
Draw or Gol Gohar
75%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
8%
Gol Gohar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
56%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
20%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
5%
Gol Gohar 1+ goals
70%
Gol Gohar 2+ goals
34%
Gol Gohar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
36%
Gol Gohar (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Gol Gohar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Gol Gohar attack 1.50 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
25%
level
30%
Gol Gohar scores more
45%

Gol Gohar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Mahshahr 1–3 Gol Gohar

Gol Gohar beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 3-1 in Azadegan League on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).