Gol Gohar 1–0 Shahrdari Mahshahr: Result & Stats

Gol Gohar

FT

1 – 0

Shahrdari Mahshahr

4/23/2019

Azadegan League · Round 33Imam Ali Stadium (Sirjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gol Gohar55%

×Draw27%

Shahrdari Mahshahr18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gol GoharExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Mahshahr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.70

Gol Gohar

1.45

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.70

Gol Gohar creates 107% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.57

creates per match

0.60

0.79

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Gol Gohar

1.57

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.60

allows per match

Gol Gohar

0.79

Shahrdari Mahshahr

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gol Gohar ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Gol Gohar or draw

82%

Gol Gohar or Shahrdari Mahshahr

73%

Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr

45%

Winning margin

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

28%

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

77%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

42%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

18%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals

50%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals

16%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

75%

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gol Gohar at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gol Gohar attack 1.57 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Gol Gohar defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Gol Gohar scores more

55%

level

27%

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more

18%

Gol Gohar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff