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Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
2 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
4/30/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr28%
×Draw33%
Fajr Sepasi39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.77
Fajr Sepasi
0.98

Fajr Sepasi creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
61%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Fajr Sepasi
67%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
72%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
9%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
54%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
18%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
4%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
62%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
26%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
41%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
28%
level
33%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
39%

Fajr Sepasi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Fajr Sepasi

Shahrdari Mahshahr beat Fajr Sepasi 2-1 in Azadegan League on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).