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Fajr Sepasi vs Shahrdari Mahshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
FT
0 – 0
Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
12/15/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fajr Sepasi57%
×Draw28%
Shahrdari Mahshahr15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fajr Sepasi
1.36
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.55

Fajr Sepasi creates 147% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi
1.40
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.60

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi
0.50
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.33

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par
Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw
85%
Fajr Sepasi or Shahrdari Mahshahr
72%
Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr
43%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
28%
Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
74%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
39%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
16%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
42%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
79%
Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.50 · 100 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.40 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more
57%
level
28%
Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
15%

Fajr Sepasi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Shahrdari Mahshahr

Fajr Sepasi and Shahrdari Mahshahr drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at Grand Shiraz Stadium (Shīrāz (Shiraz)).