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Shahrdari Mahshahr vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
FT
0 – 1
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
4/16/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr30%
×Draw31%
Baderan Tehran39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.89
Baderan Tehran
1.07

Baderan Tehran creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.67
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.93
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw
61%
Shahrdari Mahshahr or Baderan Tehran
69%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
70%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
10%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
59%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
22%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
6%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
66%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
29%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
43%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.67 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
30%
level
31%
Baderan Tehran scores more
39%

Baderan Tehran at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Mahshahr 0–1 Baderan Tehran

Baderan Tehran beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 1-0 in Azadegan League on April 16, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr).