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Baderan Tehran vs Shahrdari Mahshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
3 – 2
Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
12/2/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Naft Tehransar (Tehran)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baderan Tehran50%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Mahshahr21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.30
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.74

Baderan Tehran creates 76% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 15 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.27
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.60

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.88
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.33

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
79%
Baderan Tehran or Shahrdari Mahshahr
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr
50%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
23%
Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
73%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
37%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
52%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
17%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
70%
Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.88 · 51 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.27 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
50%
level
29%
Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
21%

Baderan Tehran at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 3–2 Shahrdari Mahshahr

Baderan Tehran beat Shahrdari Mahshahr 3-2 in Azadegan League on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Naft Tehransar (Tehran).