Shahrdari Hamedan 1–0 Shahin Bushehr

Shahrdari Hamedan

FT

1 – 0

Shahin Bushehr

11/6/2021

Azadegan League · Round 4Ghods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan41%

×Draw34%

Shahin Bushehr25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari HamedanExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.67

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.96

Shahin Bushehr

0.67

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 43% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

0.97

creates per match

0.69

0.65

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

Shahin Bushehr

0.69

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.65

Shahin Bushehr

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw

75%

Shahrdari Hamedan or Shahin Bushehr

66%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

59%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

15%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

62%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

25%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

7%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

49%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

15%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

62%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

41%

level

34%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

25%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff