Shahin Bushehr 0–1 Shahrdari Hamedan

Shahin Bushehr

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shahrdari Hamedan

3/11/2022

Azadegan League · Round 21Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shahin Bushehr39%

×Draw35%

Shahrdari Hamedan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahin BushehrExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Hamedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.70

Shahin Bushehr

0.91

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.70

Shahin Bushehr creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

0.85

creates per match

0.52

0.88

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.85

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.52

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.88

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw

73%

Shahin Bushehr or Shahrdari Hamedan

65%

Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan

61%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

14%

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

60%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

23%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

6%

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

50%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

16%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

59%

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more

39%

level

35%

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

27%

Shahin Bushehr at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff