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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
0 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
11/22/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan35%
×Draw36%
Mes Kerman29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.83
Mes Kerman
0.72

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 116 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Mes Kerman
0.69

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
71%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Mes Kerman
64%
Draw or Mes Kerman
65%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
12%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
56%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
20%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
5%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
51%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
16%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
55%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.83

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
35%
level
36%
Mes Kerman scores more
29%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Hamedan vs Mes Kerman

Mes Kerman beat Shahrdari Hamedan 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 22, 2021.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.