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Mes Kerman vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
4/4/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mes Kerman48%
×Draw34%
Shahrdari Hamedan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.04
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.53

Mes Kerman creates 96% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 33 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
81%
Mes Kerman or Shahrdari Hamedan
66%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
52%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
19%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
65%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
28%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
9%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
41%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
72%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
48%
level
34%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
19%

Mes Kerman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Shahrdari Hamedan

Mes Kerman beat Shahrdari Hamedan 3-0 in Azadegan League on April 4, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.