Shahrdari Hamedan 1–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Shahrdari Hamedan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

5/22/2022

Azadegan League · Round 31Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan43%

×Draw32%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari HamedanExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.71

Shahrdari Hamedan

1.06

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.71

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 49% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

0.97

creates per match

0.77

0.65

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.65

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw

76%

Shahrdari Hamedan or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

68%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

57%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

18%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

65%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

29%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

9%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

51%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

16%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

64%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

43%

level

32%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

24%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff