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Khooshe Talaee Saveh vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
1/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh45%
×Draw32%
Shahrdari Hamedan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.08
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.68

Khooshe Talaee Saveh creates 59% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 33 away

creates per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.20
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.83
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khooshe Talaee Saveh ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Khooshe Talaee Saveh or draw
77%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh or Shahrdari Hamedan
68%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
55%

Winning margin

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
18%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
66%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
29%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
49%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
15%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
66%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.83 · 83 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 1.20 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
45%
level
32%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
23%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Khooshe Talaee Saveh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Khooshe Talaee Saveh 0–0 Shahrdari Hamedan

Khooshe Talaee Saveh and Shahrdari Hamedan drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Chamran Saveh Stadium in Saveh.