Shahrdari Hamedan 0–0 Esteghlal Mollasani

Shahrdari Hamedan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal Mollasani

6/2/2022

Azadegan League · Round 33Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan45%

×Draw31%

Esteghlal Mollasani23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari HamedanExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Mollasani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.73

Shahrdari Hamedan

1.14

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.73

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 56% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

0.97

creates per match

0.82

0.65

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

Esteghlal Mollasani

0.82

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.65

Esteghlal Mollasani

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Esteghlal Mollasani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw

77%

Shahrdari Hamedan or Esteghlal Mollasani

69%

Draw or Esteghlal Mollasani

55%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

19%

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

68%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

32%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

11%

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals

52%

Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals

17%

Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

66%

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

45%

level

31%

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more

23%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff