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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
3/30/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani42%
×Draw34%
Shahrdari Hamedan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.00
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.68

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 47% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
76%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Shahrdari Hamedan
66%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
58%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
16%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
63%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
26%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
8%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
49%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
15%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
63%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
42%
level
34%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
24%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Mollasani 1–1 Shahrdari Hamedan

Esteghlal Mollasani and Shahrdari Hamedan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 30, 2023.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.