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Shahrdari Hamedan vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
5/10/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan38%
×Draw33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.95
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.79

Shahrdari Hamedan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan
0.65
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.94

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw
71%
Shahrdari Hamedan or Esteghlal Khuzestan
67%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
62%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
14%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
61%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
25%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
7%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
55%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
19%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
57%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
38%
level
33%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
29%

Shahrdari Hamedan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shahrdari Hamedan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Hamedan 1–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Shahrdari Hamedan beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 10, 2022.

The match was played at Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex in Hamedān.