Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
1/1/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan50%
×Draw33%
Shahrdari Hamedan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.11
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.54

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 106% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 33 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.56
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
82%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Shahrdari Hamedan
67%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
50%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
21%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
67%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
30%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
42%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
10%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
73%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.56 · 66 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
50%
level
33%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
18%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Shahrdari Hamedan

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Shahrdari Hamedan 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 1, 2022.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.