Shahrdari Hamedan 0–1 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Hamedan

FT

0 – 1

Chadormalu SC

3/4/2023

Azadegan League · Round 24Haji Babaei Martyr Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Shahrdari Hamedan30%

×Draw34%

Chadormalu SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari HamedanExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

0.91

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.79

Chadormalu SC

0.91

Chadormalu SC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 31 away

0.97

creates per match

1.16

0.65

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.97

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Shahrdari Hamedan

0.65

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Hamedan ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Hamedan or draw

64%

Shahrdari Hamedan or Chadormalu SC

66%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

70%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+

9%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals

55%

Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals

19%

Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals

5%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

60%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

23%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)

45%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Hamedan at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.97 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.79

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shahrdari Hamedan scores more

30%

level

34%

Chadormalu SC scores more

36%

Chadormalu SC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff