Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chadormalu SC vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
1 – 1
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
10/6/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC46%
×Draw31%
Shahrdari Hamedan23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.13
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.71

Chadormalu SC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
77%
Chadormalu SC or Shahrdari Hamedan
69%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
54%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
19%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
68%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
31%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
51%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
16%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
66%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
46%
level
31%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
23%

Chadormalu SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chadormalu SC vs Shahrdari Hamedan

Chadormalu SC and Shahrdari Hamedan drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 6, 2022.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.