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Shahrdari Astara vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
3/16/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Shahrdari Astara40%
×Draw33%
Shahin Bushehr27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.00
Shahin Bushehr
0.76

Shahrdari Astara creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Shahin Bushehr
0.58

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Shahin Bushehr
1.08

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
73%
Shahrdari Astara or Shahin Bushehr
67%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
60%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
15%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
63%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
26%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
8%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
53%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
18%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
60%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.58 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
40%
level
33%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
27%

Shahrdari Astara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Astara 2–0 Shahin Bushehr

Shahrdari Astara beat Shahin Bushehr 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.