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Shahin Bushehr vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
11/22/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shahin Bushehr52%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Astara19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.28
Shahrdari Astara
0.64

Shahin Bushehr creates 100% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.85
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.88
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
81%
Shahin Bushehr or Shahrdari Astara
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
48%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
24%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
72%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
37%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
47%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
74%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
52%
level
29%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
19%

Shahin Bushehr at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Shahrdari Astara

Shahin Bushehr and Shahrdari Astara drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.