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Shahrdari Astara vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Saipa
Saipa
10/21/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Shahrdari Astara35%
×Draw33%
Saipa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Saipa
0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
69%
Shahrdari Astara or Saipa
67%
Draw or Saipa
65%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
13%
Saipa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
60%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
23%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
7%
Saipa 1+ goals
57%
Saipa 2+ goals
21%
Saipa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
53%
Saipa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Saipa attack 0.75 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
35%
level
33%
Saipa scores more
31%

Shahrdari Astara at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Astara 1–1 Saipa

Shahrdari Astara and Saipa drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.