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Saipa vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
1/25/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 19Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Saipa61%
×Draw27%
Shahrdari Astara13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.44
Shahrdari Astara
0.49

Saipa creates 194% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
87%
Saipa or Shahrdari Astara
73%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
39%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
32%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
76%
Saipa 2+ goals
42%
Saipa 3+ goals
18%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
39%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
9%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
83%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Saipa scores more
61%
level
27%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
13%

Saipa at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saipa vs Shahrdari Astara

Saipa and Shahrdari Astara drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on January 25, 2023.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.