Shahrdari Astara 0–0 Niroye Zamini: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Astara

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niroye Zamini

10/29/2024

Azadegan League · Round 9Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Shahrdari Astara38%

×Draw32%

Niroye Zamini30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari AstaraExpected goals in this matchNiroye Zamini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.85

Shahrdari Astara

0.99

Niroye Zamini

0.85

Shahrdari Astara creates 16% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 50 away

0.92

creates per match

0.76

0.95

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.92

Niroye Zamini

0.76

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.95

Niroye Zamini

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Niroye Zamini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw

70%

Shahrdari Astara or Niroye Zamini

68%

Draw or Niroye Zamini

62%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

14%

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

63%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

26%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

8%

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

57%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

21%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

56%

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more

38%

level

32%

Niroye Zamini scores more

30%

Shahrdari Astara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff