Niroye Zamini 2–0 Shahrdari Astara: Result & Stats

Niroye Zamini

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

3/17/2025

Azadegan League · Round 26Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Niroye Zamini50%

×Draw30%

Shahrdari Astara20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niroye ZaminiExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.65

Niroye Zamini

1.23

Shahrdari Astara

0.65

Niroye Zamini creates 89% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

0.76

creates per match

0.40

0.90

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Niroye Zamini

0.76

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Niroye Zamini

0.90

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw

80%

Niroye Zamini or Shahrdari Astara

70%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

50%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

23%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

71%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

35%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

13%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

48%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

14%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

72%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more

50%

level

30%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

20%

Niroye Zamini at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff