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Shahrdari Astara vs Naft Gachsaran — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
12/19/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Shahrdari Astara38%
×Draw32%
Naft Gachsaran30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
1.03
Naft Gachsaran
0.88

Shahrdari Astara creates 17% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Naft Gachsaran
1.14

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Naft Gachsaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
70%
Shahrdari Astara or Naft Gachsaran
68%
Draw or Naft Gachsaran
62%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
15%
Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
64%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
28%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
9%
Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
59%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
22%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
56%
Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
38%
level
32%
Naft Gachsaran scores more
30%

Shahrdari Astara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Shahrdari Astara 0–3 Naft Gachsaran

Naft Gachsaran beat Shahrdari Astara 3-0 in Azadegan League on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.