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Naft Gachsaran vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
5/6/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Naft Gachsaran54%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Astara17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naft Gachsaran
1.28
Shahrdari Astara
0.57

Naft Gachsaran creates 125% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 84 away

creates per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.86
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Naft Gachsaran
0.74
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Gachsaran ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Naft Gachsaran or draw
83%
Naft Gachsaran or Shahrdari Astara
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
46%

Winning margin

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
26%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
72%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
37%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
43%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
77%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Gachsaran at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.74 · 50 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.86 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Naft Gachsaran defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Naft Gachsaran scores more
54%
level
29%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
17%

Naft Gachsaran at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Naft Gachsaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Naft Gachsaran 3–1 Shahrdari Astara

Naft Gachsaran beat Shahrdari Astara 3-1 in Azadegan League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahwaz.