Shahrdari Astara 1–0 Havadar: Result & Stats

Shahrdari Astara

FT

1 – 0

Havadar

A. Haqdeh 88'

3/7/2021

Azadegan League · Round 17Sardar Jangal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Shahrdari Astara31%

×Draw35%

Havadar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari AstaraExpected goals in this matchHavadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.86

Shahrdari Astara

0.80

Havadar

0.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 32 away

0.92

creates per match

0.78

0.95

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.92

Havadar

0.78

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.95

Havadar

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Havadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw

66%

Shahrdari Astara or Havadar

65%

Draw or Havadar

69%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

10%

Havadar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

55%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

19%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

5%

Havadar 1+ goals

58%

Havadar 2+ goals

21%

Havadar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

47%

Havadar (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.80

Havadar attack 0.78 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more

31%

level

35%

Havadar scores more

34%

Havadar at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'

A. Haqdeh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff