Havadar 1–0 Shahrdari Astara: Result & Stats

Havadar

FT

1 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

7/19/2021

Azadegan League · Round 34Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Havadar61%

×Draw25%

Shahrdari Astara13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HavadarExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.55

Havadar

1.53

Shahrdari Astara

0.55

Havadar creates 178% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

1.35

creates per match

0.40

0.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Havadar

1.35

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Havadar

0.71

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Havadar+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havadar ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Havadar or draw

87%

Havadar or Shahrdari Astara

75%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

39%

Winning margin

Havadar wins by 2+

33%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Havadar 1+ goals

78%

Havadar 2+ goals

45%

Havadar 3+ goals

20%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

42%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

11%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Havadar (draw refunded)

82%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havadar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 34 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havadar attack 1.35 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.53

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Havadar defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Havadar scores more

61%

level

25%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

13%

Havadar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Havadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff