Shahrdari Astara 0–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan

Shahrdari Astara

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esteghlal Khuzestan

10/12/2022

Azadegan League · Round 8Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shahrdari Astara34%

×Draw32%

Esteghlal Khuzestan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari AstaraExpected goals in this matchEsteghlal Khuzestan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.94

Shahrdari Astara

0.93

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 67 away

0.92

creates per match

0.94

0.95

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.92

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.94

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara

0.95

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw

66%

Shahrdari Astara or Esteghlal Khuzestan

68%

Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan

66%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

12%

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

61%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

24%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

7%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

61%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

24%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

50%

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.94 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more

34%

level

32%

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

34%

Shahrdari Astara at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff