Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Shahrdari Astara

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

3/10/2023

Azadegan League · Round 25Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan62%

×Draw26%

Shahrdari Astara12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.48

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.48

Shahrdari Astara

0.48

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 208% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 84 away

1.25

creates per match

0.40

0.55

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.25

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.55

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

88%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Shahrdari Astara

74%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

38%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

33%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

77%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

43%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

19%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

38%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

8%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

84%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

62%

level

26%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

12%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff