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Shahrdari Astara vs Be'sat Kermanshah — Azadegan League 2018

Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
4/16/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Vahdat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Shahrdari Astara40%
×Draw33%
Be'sat Kermanshah27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahrdari Astara
0.99
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.75

Shahrdari Astara creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.92
Be'sat Kermanshah
0.55

allows per match

Shahrdari Astara
0.95
Be'sat Kermanshah
1.06

finishing

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par
Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Astara ↓

Be'sat Kermanshah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Shahrdari Astara or draw
73%
Shahrdari Astara or Be'sat Kermanshah
67%
Draw or Be'sat Kermanshah
60%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
15%
Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
63%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
26%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
8%
Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
53%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
17%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
60%
Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Astara at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.95 · 84 matches

Be'sat Kermanshah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.92 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.55 + Shahrdari Astara defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahrdari Astara scores more
40%
level
33%
Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
27%

Shahrdari Astara at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shahrdari Astara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahrdari Astara vs Be'sat Kermanshah

Be'sat Kermanshah beat Shahrdari Astara 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Vahdat Stadium in Astara.