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Be'sat Kermanshah vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Be'sat Kermanshah
Be'sat Kermanshah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
11/30/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Be'sat Kermanshah57%
×Draw29%
Shahrdari Astara14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be'sat Kermanshah
1.31
Shahrdari Astara
0.49

Be'sat Kermanshah creates 167% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.91
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Be'sat Kermanshah
0.58
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Be'sat Kermanshah+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be'sat Kermanshah ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Be'sat Kermanshah or draw
86%
Be'sat Kermanshah or Shahrdari Astara
71%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
43%

Winning margin

Be'sat Kermanshah wins by 2+
28%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Be'sat Kermanshah 1+ goals
73%
Be'sat Kermanshah 2+ goals
38%
Be'sat Kermanshah 3+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
39%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
9%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Be'sat Kermanshah (draw refunded)
80%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be'sat Kermanshah at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.58 · 33 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be'sat Kermanshah attack 0.91 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Be'sat Kermanshah defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Be'sat Kermanshah scores more
57%
level
29%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
14%

Be'sat Kermanshah at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Be'sat Kermanshah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be'sat Kermanshah vs Shahrdari Astara

Be'sat Kermanshah and Shahrdari Astara drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Kermanshah.