Shahin Bushehr 0–0 Shahrdari Mahshahr

Shahin Bushehr

FT

0 – 0

Shahrdari Mahshahr

2/13/2019

Azadegan League · Round 23Shahid Beheshti Stadium (Bushehr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shahin Bushehr45%

×Draw31%

Shahrdari Mahshahr24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahin BushehrExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Mahshahr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.76

Shahin Bushehr

1.14

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.76

Shahin Bushehr creates 50% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

0.85

creates per match

0.64

0.88

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.85

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.64

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr

0.88

Shahrdari Mahshahr

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw

76%

Shahin Bushehr or Shahrdari Mahshahr

69%

Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr

55%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

19%

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

68%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

32%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

11%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals

53%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals

18%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

65%

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.85 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.64 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more

45%

level

31%

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more

24%

Shahin Bushehr at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff