Shahrdari Mahshahr 0–0 Shahin Bushehr

Shahrdari Mahshahr

FT

0 – 0

Shahin Bushehr

9/30/2018

Azadegan League · Round 6Shohada Mahshahr (Mahshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr23%

×Draw39%

Shahin Bushehr38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shahrdari MahshahrExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.53

0.78

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.53

Shahin Bushehr

0.78

Shahin Bushehr creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 35 away

0.00

creates per match

0.57

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr

0.00

Shahin Bushehr

0.57

allows per match

Shahrdari Mahshahr

1.00

Shahin Bushehr

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under85
Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No78
Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahrdari Mahshahr ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–027%

0–121%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–13%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (27%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

73%27%1.5

38%62%2.5

15%85%3.5

4%96%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Shahrdari Mahshahr or draw

62%

Shahrdari Mahshahr or Shahin Bushehr

61%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

77%

Winning margin

Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+

5%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals

41%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals

10%

Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals

2%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

54%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

18%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)

37%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

11%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahrdari Mahshahr at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.00 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.53

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.57 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more

23%

level

39%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

38%

Shahin Bushehr at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shahin Bushehr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff