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Shahin Bushehr vs Sanat Naft — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sanat Naft
Sanat Naft
12/10/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 14Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr32%
×Draw28%
Sanat Naft40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.07
Sanat Naft
1.25

Sanat Naft creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 91 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Sanat Naft
0.69

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Sanat Naft
1.22

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Sanat Naft →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
60%
Shahin Bushehr or Sanat Naft
72%
Draw or Sanat Naft
68%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
12%
Sanat Naft wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
66%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
29%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
Sanat Naft 1+ goals
71%
Sanat Naft 2+ goals
36%
Sanat Naft 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
44%
Sanat Naft (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Sanat Naft away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Sanat Naft defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sanat Naft attack 0.69 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
32%
level
28%
Sanat Naft scores more
40%

Sanat Naft at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Sanat Naft

Shahin Bushehr and Sanat Naft drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 10, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.