Sanat Naft 3–1 Shahin Bushehr: Result & Stats

Sanat Naft

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shahin Bushehr

8/15/2020

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 29Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sanat Naft50%

×Draw26%

Shahin Bushehr24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanat NaftExpected goals in this matchShahin Bushehr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Sanat Naft

1.50

Shahin Bushehr

0.95

Sanat Naft creates 58% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 15 away

1.01

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sanat Naft

1.01

Shahin Bushehr

0.80

allows per match

Sanat Naft

1.09

Shahin Bushehr

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanat Naft+0.00on par

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanat Naft ↓

Shahin Bushehr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sanat Naft or draw

76%

Sanat Naft or Shahin Bushehr

74%

Draw or Shahin Bushehr

50%

Winning margin

Sanat Naft wins by 2+

25%

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sanat Naft 1+ goals

78%

Sanat Naft 2+ goals

44%

Sanat Naft 3+ goals

19%

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals

61%

Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals

25%

Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sanat Naft (draw refunded)

68%

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanat Naft at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 89 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanat Naft attack 1.01 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Sanat Naft defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sanat Naft scores more

50%

level

26%

Shahin Bushehr scores more

24%

Sanat Naft at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sanat Naft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff