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Shahin Bushehr vs Paykan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paykan
Paykan
9/15/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 3Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr29%
×Draw27%
Paykan44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.05
Paykan
1.35

Paykan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Paykan
0.91

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Paykan
1.17

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Paykan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Paykan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
56%
Shahin Bushehr or Paykan
73%
Draw or Paykan
71%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
11%
Paykan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
65%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
28%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
Paykan 1+ goals
74%
Paykan 2+ goals
39%
Paykan 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
40%
Paykan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Paykan away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.17 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Paykan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Paykan attack 0.91 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
29%
level
27%
Paykan scores more
44%

Paykan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Paykan

Shahin Bushehr and Paykan drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.