Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Paykan vs Shahin Bushehr — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Paykan
Paykan
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
1/31/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 18Shahr-e Qods Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Paykan48%
×Draw27%
Shahin Bushehr25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paykan
1.39
Shahin Bushehr
0.92

Paykan creates 51% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

creates per match

Paykan
0.78
Shahin Bushehr
0.80

allows per match

Paykan
1.04
Shahin Bushehr
2.00

finishing

Paykan+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paykan ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Paykan or draw
75%
Paykan or Shahin Bushehr
73%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
52%

Winning margin

Paykan wins by 2+
23%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Paykan 1+ goals
75%
Paykan 2+ goals
40%
Paykan 3+ goals
16%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
60%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
23%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paykan (draw refunded)
66%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paykan at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.04 · 102 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paykan attack 0.78 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Paykan defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Paykan scores more
48%
level
27%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
25%

Paykan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Paykan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Paykan vs Shahin Bushehr

Shahin Bushehr beat Paykan 3-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 31, 2020.

The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.