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Shahin Bushehr vs Padideh Khorasan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
1/17/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 17Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr30%
×Draw28%
Padideh Khorasan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.03
Padideh Khorasan
1.26

Padideh Khorasan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Padideh Khorasan
0.72

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Padideh Khorasan
1.14

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Padideh Khorasan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
58%
Shahin Bushehr or Padideh Khorasan
72%
Draw or Padideh Khorasan
70%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
11%
Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
64%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
28%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
72%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
36%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
42%
Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Padideh Khorasan away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Padideh Khorasan defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Padideh Khorasan attack 0.72 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
30%
level
28%
Padideh Khorasan scores more
42%

Padideh Khorasan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shahin Bushehr vs Padideh Khorasan

Shahin Bushehr and Padideh Khorasan drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 17, 2020.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.