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Padideh Khorasan vs Shahin Bushehr — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Padideh Khorasan
Padideh Khorasan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
8/29/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 2Imam Reza Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Padideh Khorasan55%
×Draw26%
Shahin Bushehr19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padideh Khorasan
1.50
Shahin Bushehr
0.77

Padideh Khorasan creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Padideh Khorasan
1.00
Shahin Bushehr
0.80

allows per match

Padideh Khorasan
0.73
Shahin Bushehr
2.00

finishing

Padideh Khorasan+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padideh Khorasan ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Padideh Khorasan or draw
81%
Padideh Khorasan or Shahin Bushehr
74%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
45%

Winning margin

Padideh Khorasan wins by 2+
28%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Padideh Khorasan 1+ goals
78%
Padideh Khorasan 2+ goals
44%
Padideh Khorasan 3+ goals
19%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
54%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
18%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Padideh Khorasan (draw refunded)
74%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padideh Khorasan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 60 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padideh Khorasan attack 1.00 + Shahin Bushehr defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.80 + Padideh Khorasan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Padideh Khorasan scores more
55%
level
26%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
19%

Padideh Khorasan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Padideh Khorasan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Padideh Khorasan vs Shahin Bushehr

Padideh Khorasan beat Shahin Bushehr 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 29, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Reza Stadium in Mashhad.