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Shahin Bushehr vs Nassaji Mazandaran — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
2/7/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 19Shahid Mahdavi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shahin Bushehr30%
×Draw28%
Nassaji Mazandaran42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shahin Bushehr
1.07
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.31

Nassaji Mazandaran creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

creates per match

Shahin Bushehr
0.93
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.83

allows per match

Shahin Bushehr
1.80
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.21

finishing

Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par
Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shahin Bushehr ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shahin Bushehr or draw
58%
Shahin Bushehr or Nassaji Mazandaran
72%
Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran
70%

Winning margin

Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
12%
Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
66%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
29%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
9%
Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
73%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
38%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
42%
Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shahin Bushehr at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.93 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.83 + Shahin Bushehr defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shahin Bushehr scores more
30%
level
28%
Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
42%

Nassaji Mazandaran at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nassaji Mazandaran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Shahin Bushehr 2–1 Nassaji Mazandaran

Shahin Bushehr beat Nassaji Mazandaran 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 7, 2020.

The match was played at Shahid Mahdavi Stadium in Bandar Bushehr.